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Russia-Ukraine Conflict Summary: What’s happening in Ukraine?

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we're taking a closer look at the historical context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict to better understand the escalation as well as providing you with a detailed timeline of events, documenting the latest developments and our short-term assessment of what to expect in Ukraine and beyond.

What's happening in Ukraine?

Prior reporting from Intelligence Fusion on the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Donbass region revealed consistent reports of ceasefire violations and withdrawal agreements from both Russia-backed DPR and LPR (Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic) separatists and Ukrainian forces.

These ceasefire and withdrawal violations have been a constant feature of our reporting for some time now, with rhetoric and actions periodically escalating but neither side escalating to the point of outright warfare as seen prior to the Minsk Agreements of 2014-15.

However, on the 24th February 2022, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. The development came after Russian President, Vladimir Putin, ordered a “specialised military operation” that aimed to demilitarise the country. Since then, the conflict has escalated significantly and continues to be fast-changing.

This report will take a look at the context surrounding the reported troop build-up on Ukraine’s borders, and act as a living document, with periodical updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.


Get regular intelligence updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine

With Russia having now launched an invasion of Ukraine, get regular updates on this fast-moving situation. We’re covering the conflict 24/7, so to provide you with a full run-down of developments, and our most up-to-date assessment, we’re circulating regular intelligence summaries.

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What happened in the lead up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Without going back to the beginning of the conflict, we revisit an Intelligence Fusion report from November 2021 that provided key insight into the ongoing Poland-Belarus Border conflict, Russia’s involvement and what that meant for already increasing tensions in the Donbass region.

What triggered the invasion of Ukraine?

Having monitored the increasing volatility between Russia and Ukraine for some time, we look back on the activity that led to commentators predicting the invasion of Ukraine.

 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: December Update

Intelligence released in December 2021 by the Ukrainian military suggested that the preparation for a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine was underway. Our update from the 10th December 2021 expands on the intelligence available and the international response at that time.

 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: January Update

As of the 27th January, troops continued to mass on the border of Ukraine, often under the guise of ‘military drills’ such as the ‘United Resolve’ joint Russia-Belarus drills that take place between the 10th-20th February. Our update on the Russia-Ukraine conflict from January 2022 describes the efforts from the West to discourage an invasion as well as the increase in cyber attacks witnessed prior to the invasion.

 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update: February Update

Since the previous update on 27th January 2022, incidents relating to the Russia-Ukraine conflict continue to be logged across Ukraine and along its borders with Russia and Belarus.

 

On the 21st February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed with a recent vote by the State Duma and formally recognised the separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts of Ukraine

 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: After the Invasion

On 24th February 2022, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. The development came after Russian President, Vladimir Putin, ordered a “specialised military operation” that aimed to “demilitarise the country.” This section provides a timeline of events since Russian began an attempt to invade Ukraine.

 

What is the international response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

As the conflict continues, the global impact of the Russia-Ukraine war cannot be ignored. In this section, we’ll document the international response to Russia’s invasion, the sanctions and repercussions Putin and his country face as well as the wider impacts that we’re witnessing across the world.

How did the Russia-Ukraine conflict start?

This Russian build-up on the Ukraine border has coincided with both the Poland-Belarus border crisis and Russia’s attempts to double its supply of natural gas to Western Europe through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. To further understand the context surrounding the troop build-up, we have included our prior analysis on both of these issues below – as well as the significance of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for Ukraine’s Oil and Gas economy.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Poland-Belarus Border Crisis

Prior to the invasion, the most recent build-up of Russian military assets on the Ukraine border coincided with the Poland-Belarus border crisis, with Belarus – an ally of Russia, although by no means a ‘puppet state’ – accused of state-sponsored human trafficking. 

 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Nord Stream 2 Gas Pipeline

At the same time, Russia had completed construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which would provide natural gas directly to Western Europe via Germany. The certification process for this pipeline has yet to be completed, however, with Germany suspending approval on the 16th November, likely in some part in response to Belarus’ threat to halt gas supplies from the Yamal pipeline.

 

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Oil and Gas and the Energy Sector

Click to expand and read our prior analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its impact on Oil and Gas, originally published on 23rd August 2021


Intelligence Fusion’s Russia-Ukraine conflict summary is made possible by our 24/7 team of experienced, military standard trained intelligence analysts, who use open-source intelligence sources to track, verify, map, and analyse the latest developments across the global threat landscape.

As the situation continues to develop we will be posting regular updates as well as answering any questions people might have about the conflict in the Donbass region in our new OSINT community on Discord, exclusively available to our email subscribers. To learn more, follow the situation or to give your own take on the latest in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, you can sign up here.

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