Unraveling the Murder Enigma: The alleged spike in US murder rates and the 2024 presidential election

In the United States, murder rates persist at historically low levels in comparison to their peaks during the late 20th century, a trend partially ascribed to the substantial decline in highly organized crime, notably exemplified by the Italian-American Mafia. Despite this encouraging trajectory, the US stands out significantly with regard to its elevated murder rate, which remains notably higher than that of any other G7 country, the primary grouping of advanced democracies.

Presently, the US murder rate stands at approximately 6 per 100,000 of the population, a figure that has remained remarkably stable since 2000. Conversely, all other G7 member nations exhibit rates that are at least less than half of this figure, often substantially lower. While a temporary surge in murder rates occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, frequently emphasized by individuals with political motivations, this trend has largely subsided in most major US cities, with a few exceptions.

In 2023, there was a notable decline in homicide rates in the US, marking one of the steepest declines on record. Cities such as Detroit, Baltimore, and St. Louis experienced their lowest murder rates in years or even decades. Despite claims attributing this short-term increase in murder during COVID-19 to criminal justice reforms in “Democrat cities,” murder rates rose similarly in cities governed by both Republicans and Democrats.

The decline of highly organized crime in the US was largely influenced by societal changes, including a reduction in ethnic enclaves and a shift in cultural perceptions toward criminality, eroding the traditional support base of highly organized crime groups. Additionally, diversified economic opportunities diminished the allure of illicit activities controlled by these groups.

Technological advancements, particularly in the implementation of complex DNA analysis in which the US leads globally, have facilitated the apprehension of murderers, even those from decades ago. This has bolstered the deterrent effect against murder, particularly in instances not associated with gangs. Notable decades-old serial killer cases have recently been solved using this technique, such as the so-called “Golden State Killer.” Conversely, technologies aiding murder and evasion of detection within G7 countries have not advanced at a similar pace.

US organized crime, according to US crime experts, resulted in a reduction of murderous power struggles between and within hierarchical criminal groups.

“High-level” organized criminals have become more specialized and autonomous, delegating low-skilled and hazardous tasks to others in a less structured manner than the “classical” hierarchical, Italian-American Mafia. This has inadvertently contributed to the reduction of murder rates, as killings between and within highly organized criminal groups occur at significantly lower rates than their peak in the late 20th century.

As some Democrats point out, despite the extremely high per capita incarceration rate, the US still grapples with a significant murder rate enigma. Even though its legal system often resembles more punitive ones akin to Russia than any other G7 country.

One prominent explanation is political instability in the US, which significantly influences murder rates, with sentiments toward the government playing a significant role. Confidence in government officials and a sense of societal cohesion are evidenced by academics to lower murder rates by reducing aggression. The elevated murder rate in the US is partly attributed to widespread feelings of alienation and dissatisfaction with housing, access to medical care, government policies, and poverty in general.

For example, cities experiencing a disproportionate number of gun-related homicides, such as Detroit, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New Orleans, Newark, St. Louis, and Chicago, all have a history of disinvestment in black communities, which are less wealthy than other ethnicities. The data revealed that gun-related violence disproportionately affects Black youths, with a firearm homicide rate 20 times higher than that of their white counterparts.

This was globally highlighted during COVID-19 in 2020, with the killing of Tyre Nichols, which sparked protests across the nation. This led to a rise in crime in Memphis, where aggressive policing tactics like “Scorpion Units” had been haphazardly deployed, contributing to the militarized policing problem, which increases resentment in such communities towards the government.

Democratic-leaning counties have consistently recorded higher homicide rates than Republican-leaning counties since 2002. Using state-level homicide data to make conclusions overlooks the diverse law enforcement approaches at the county and city levels, which are influenced by varying political actors.

County-level homicide rates especially vary widely within states, with some counties having high rates while many others have low or none. This skew can heavily influence state-level homicide rates, particularly when counties have different political leanings within states that may simplistically be classed as “red” or “blue”. The misnomer that there are simply Biden or Trump states simplifies the complex social landscapes that occur across each individual state in the US.

However, some conclusions can be drawn which side with the Democrats’ discourse: apart from certain blue cities, the prevalence of red cities and states correlates with lower levels of education and healthcare affordability. Additionally, red states tend to have higher rates of homicide and suicide compared to blue states. Factors such as state policies, rural vs urban, and firearms owned per capita help us understand why Republican-led communities struggle with higher numbers of murders. Even during 2020, nine in ten states with the highest gun mortality rates were Republican and per capita murder rates in Trump states were 40% higher.

The city of Chicago, for instance, is known for its strict gun laws and is situated near red states like Indiana and Wisconsin, where gun laws are more relaxed. Questions remain as to whether Chicago’s proximity to states with differing gun laws impacts Chicago’s gun crime rates.

False claims by former US President Trump regarding record-high murder rates in New York are prominent in the highly politicized and inaccurate discourse surrounding murder rate discussions in the US, fostering widespread misinformation among the general public.

This significant long-term decline in the US murder rate is evident from the official FBI statistics. Despite these encouraging trends, media sensationalism sometimes perpetuates a narrative suggesting otherwise, erroneously claiming that murder rates in the US are “skyrocketing.” Statistics indicate that murder rates in New York City, for example, are substantially lower still than they were in the late 1980s, dispelling one common misconception about the city’s safety.

Media sensationalism surrounding murder conflicts with public opinions, as according to Gallup, only 3% of Americans see crime as the most pressing issue, a sharp decline from 42% in the early 1990s. In recent years, it has consistently stayed in the low single digits as a concern, contrasting with its prominence in the early 90s.

In 1963, historian Richard Hofstadter published an influential essay in Harper’s, proposing that a “paranoid style” frequently manifests in American politics. He referenced instances such as the Anti-Masons of the 1830s and McCarthyism of the 1950s. Presently, analysts often reference this concept to elucidate today’s “Trumpism” phenomenon, where it is often claimed erroneously that crime and even murder are “out of control.”

The “paranoid style” could be seen as a lens through which Americans interpret societal issues, including murder rates. Sensationalizing murder rates may stem from a pervasive sense of fear within American culture, leading to an exaggerated focus on the most violent of crimes and its overemphasis in the general political discourse.

While the United States continues to struggle with murder rates that are the notable outlier compared to other G7 countries, they are far from “out of control,” as Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump sometimes likes to remark.

To understand more about incidents of murder in the US and other violent crimes, book a demo of the Intelligence Fusion platform to explore the importance of data-driven analysis for an effective understanding for you and your security team.