THREAT WARNING: MULTIPLE ATTACKS IN NARATHIWAT PROVINCE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

It is PROBABLE attacks across the South-East of Thailand will increase in Narathiwat and POSSIBLY in Yala and Pattani provinces. Crowded areas like markets and security checkpoints will POSSIBLY be the preferred targets by insurgents.

More analysis to follow.

INCIDENT DETAILS

18-19 Oct 2017 – Insurgent attacks in Narathiwat Province. (Click on above image to expand)

Three attacks have occurred within 24 hours in Narathiwat Province on security forces; a shooting of a police checkpoint (1 x Malaysian national killed), an IED attack at a local market and an RCIED attack targeting an Army supply vehicle. These attacks have occurred in the lead-up to the 13th anniversary of the Tak Bai incident on 25 October 2017.

COMMENT: Previous reports and analysis have indicated this anniversary has been marked by violent attacks in previous years. Reporting from last week indicated Thai authorities in Narathiwat had increased security operations to prepare for increased insurgent activities (Pratten, 2017). COMMENT ENDS

ASSESSMENT

With the upcoming anniversary in 5 days’ time – the same date as the Royal Cremation in Bangkok – it is PROBABLE attacks across the South-East of Thailand will increase in Narathiwat and POSSIBLY in Yala and Pattani provinces. Crowded areas like markets and security checkpoints will POSSIBLY be the preferred targets by insurgents.

References



PRATTEN, M. 2017. Thailand Weekly Intelligence Report – 15 October 2017. Thailand [Online], 15 October 2017. Available: https://www.intelligencefusion.co.uk/single-post/2017/10/15/Thailand-Weekly-Intelligence-Report [Accessed 20 October 2017].