Matt Pratten

Matt Pratten

Associate Analyst

14/09/2018

14/09/2018

Threat Warning for cyclones Braijat-18 and Mangkhut-18

Date of Report: Friday, 14 September 2018

Incident Date/Time: 13 SEP 2018, 1000HRS (GMT+8)

INCIDENT DETAILS

Recent Open Source reporting has indicated two Tropical Cyclones – BARIJAT-18 and MANGKHUT-18 – are currently off the coasts of Macau, China and due East of Manila, Philippines. Shown in the imagery below, BARIJAT-18 currently has an Orange rating while MANGKHUT-18 has a Red rating (Intelligence Fusion, McCabe & Harrington 2018; GDACS 2018a, 2018b). 

Available imagery from impact assessments from the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System indicate both cyclones will continue to travel West. Shown below, the cyclones are currently assessed to have impacts that will reach as far as North Eastern Myanmar. The assessed damage from both these cyclones are as follows (GDACS 2018a, 2018b): 

•            BARIJAT-18 “is expected to have a medium humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path. Up to 17.1 million people can be affected by wind speeds of tropical storm strength or above (GDACS 2018a).”

•            MANGKHUT-18 “is expected to have a high humanitarian impact based on the storm strength and the affected population in the past and forecasted path. Up to 27.2 million people can be affected by wind speeds of cyclone strength or above (GDACS 2018b).”

COMMENT. The locations and severity of these cyclones indicate that BARIJAT-18’s damage will effectively ‘soften up’ populations between its current location for MANGKHUT-18 to then hit the same areas and even further. The assessed sequence of events for these two cyclones will mean that areas already affected by a cyclone with an Orange Alert will then be hit by an even more severe cyclone. Such a situation would have the potential to amplify the damage caused by MANGKHUT-18.

Hazard incidents logged for Myanmar, Thailand and Laos – shown below – indicate these countries have been experiencing severe floods and landslides due to monsoon conditions. These cyclones are heading to areas which are already experiencing weather conditions that are damaging infrastructure and causing deaths, making access into and throughout these countries difficult and with increased risks to personal safety (Intelligence Fusion, McCabe & Harrington 2018). Given these three countries will be the last to be hit by these two cyclones, the damage to countries between them – Vietnam, Southern China and the Philippines – will experience even greater damage. COMMENT ENDS.

ASSESSMENT

Current conditions in Myanmar, Thailand and Laos already pose risks to safety from floods and landslides. With these two cyclones currently travelling towards them, it is CONFIRMED that current hazards will remain and will PROBABLY pose greater threats to travel by road or air.

Given the locations of Laos, Thailand and Myanmar as the last countries to be hit, the risks to travel by road, sea or air in Vietnam, China and the Philippines will be even greater.

Monitoring of local Meteorology Services and Disaster Agencies in these countries will PROBABLY be able to provide ample early warning for those within these countries.

REFERENCES

GDACS 2018a, ‘Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for BARIJAT-18 in China, Viet Nam from 09 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC to 12 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC’, Global Disaster Alert Coordination System, retrieved September 13, 2018, from <http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/report.aspx?eventid=1000502&episodeid=13&eventtype=TC>.

GDACS 2018b, ‘Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for MANGKHUT-18 in Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam from 07 Sep 2018 00:00 UTC to 12 Sep 2018 18:00 UTC’, Global Disaster Alert Coordination System, retrieved September 13, 2018, from <http://www.gdacs.org/Cyclones/report.aspx?eventid=1000498&episodeid=24&eventtype=TC>.

Intelligence Fusion, McCabe, M & Harrington, D 2018, ‘Intelligence Fusion Platform - Asia’, Intelligence Fusion Platform, retrieved September 13, 2018, from <https://www.intelligencefusion.co.uk/>.

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