Weekly Intelligence Report: Monitoring in Thailand

Date: Saturday, 16 September 2017

Period Covered: 00:00hrs, 09 September 2017 to 23:59hrs, 15 September 2017 (GMT+7)

N.B. – The orange zone shown in the “Thailand Incidents – Las 7 Days” graphic represents areas of Southern Thailand where the UK, USA, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian governments have advised to avoid travelling to (Bureau of Consular Affairs, 2017, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2017, Foreign and Commonwealth Office, 2017, Global Affairs Canada, 2017, New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2017). As at the time of this report, no major changes have occurred in the travel advisories issued by these governments.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Overall, Thailand appears to be continuing with a ‘business as usual’ scenario despite the nature of a number of incidents. Across the country, the incidents that have been occurring are the norm for their respective reporting regions. This even applies to the occurrence of TC DOKSURI coming towards Thailand and the complex attack which occurred in the South-East.

The upcoming cremation of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej will PROBABLY be a major focus of media organisations focusing on Thailand from now until the cremation is complete. Such focus will PROBABLY divert attention away from other developments across Thailand. Such attention will POTENTIALLY lead to incident trends remaining low for the remainder of September and POTENTIALLY October as well.

INTRODUCTION

This Intelligence Report aims to display all the incidents that have occurred during the past week in Thailand, expand on the key incidents and assess what they mean. Over the past 7 days there have been 27 incidents throughout Thailand which have been logged on the Intelligence Fusion platform. This week has seen just over half the number of incidents than the previous week. While it has been a much less intense week in terms of quantity of incidents, the halfway point of September is showing that total incidents so far stands at 68% of August’s total. (McCabe and Harrington, 2017).

COMMENT. The incident rates are calculated on the basis on dividing the Grand Total for each month by the number of calendar days in said month.

While this week has seen a much lower quantity of incidents than the previous week, the incident rate has increased to 2.47 incidents per day from 1.60 last week and it is just over the halfway point for September. Despite the lower amount of incidents this week, September still has the potential to be a month of high activity (Pratten, 2017f). COMMENT ENDS.

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1. 15 SEP 2017: Thailand Meteorological Department Issues Weather Warning for TC DOKSURI-17

Thailand’s Meteorological Department has issued a warning for 49 provinces across the country in anticipation of stormy conditions continuing well into Saturday from Tropical Cyclone DOKSURI-17 (TC DOKSURI) currently in Vietnam (as at 13:00hrs on 15 SEP 2017). Latest reporting from the Thailand Meteorological Department and Global Disaster Alert Coordination System indicates TC DOKSURI will proceed from Vietnam through Laos, across North-Eastern Thailand – where it will be downgraded to a Low-Pressure Cell – towards Myanmar.

The provinces at risk from severe weather from TC DOKSURI are all provinces in the North, North East, East and South-East reporting regions as well as Phitsanulok, Phichit and Phetchabun in the Central reporting region; and Surat Thani, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Ranong, Phangna, Phuket and Krabi in the South reporting region.

COMMENT. Based on the imagery above, TC DOKSURI will weaken to a Low-Pressure Cell as it passes through the North reporting region, meaning it will remain a cyclone as it passes over the North-East reporting region. While such weather conditions are the norm for this time of year, previous incidents of this kind of weather – such as TC SONCA – have been a scenario where the cyclone weakens to a low-pressure cell before it hits the North-East reporting regions. Previous incidents of low pressure cells hitting Thailand have caused flooding across the majority of the North-East – causing an airport to close at one point – the North and the Central reporting regions. In the Central region, flooding has been exacerbated by floodwaters draining from the North (Pratten, 2017a, Pratten, 2017e, Pratten, 2017g, Pratten, 2017h, Pratten, 2017i, Pratten, 2017j, Pratten, 2017k).

NORTH

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2. 10-15 SEP 2017: Earthquakes Across the North

Over the course of the week, a number of small earthquakes have been recorded in the North; mainly in Chiang Mai. To date, the strongest has been at a magnitude of 3.1 on the Richter scale but no reports of damage or casualties have come to light.

COMMENT. As shown in the imagery below, the North of Thailand is close to the Western border of the Indo-Chinese tectonic plate that cuts through Myanmar. With earthquakes being caused by shifts in these plates, the edge of the plate to the West of the country would be the likely source of these small earthquakes (Peters and Back, 2003).

The earthquakes occurring in the North do not appear to pose a threat at this time in Thailand. The frequency, locations and strengths of these earthquakes would appear to be a common occurrence in the North based on the incidents and the location of Thailand to the Western edge of the Indo-Chinese Tectonic Plate. These incidents would appear to be a common feature of physical terrain in this part of the country.

NORTH EAST

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3. 14 SEP 2017: OMCG Members Assault Bar Owner in Muang District, Surin

The owner of the ‘Monkey House’ Bar was assaulted by members of the Outlaws MC – an outlaw motorcycle gang (OMCG) – in the process of these OMCG members causing damage to the premises. The incident, which was caught on CCTV, is said to have occurred after a dispute after the gang opened up their own bar on the same street. The owner says the men, dressed in leather vests adorned with the Outlaws patch came entered the premises and became violent when refused service. Several men were arrested by police but later released on bail, and shortly afterwards someone returned to the bar and glued the locks.

COMMENT. The owner of the Monkey House Bar is a former British policeman. Based on professional experience in Australia, OMCG’s run legitimate businesses as fronts for illegal activities; namely drug trafficking. The North and North-Eastern reporting regions have – up until recent weeks due to weather conditions – featured numerous incidents of large quantities of illicit drugs – namely Yaba, Methamphetamine and Cannabis – being trafficked through these provinces heading further South. These drugs are manufactured in Thailand’s neighbouring countries; Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia (Pratten, 2017d).

The map imagery above indicates the location of the Monkey House Bar and the Outlaws recently opened bar are in close vicinity to a major road heading south to Cambodia. This location would be an excellent area to set up a re-distribution point for drugs coming in from Cambodia. However, the presence of a former police officer nearby would put this kind of operation at risk of being discovered and reported to Thai police. COMMENT ENDS.

CENTRAL

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4. 09 SEP 2017: Cement Train Derails in Kaeng Khoi, Saraburi

The No.1601 train from Ban Hin Lub station in Kaeng Khoi heading North for Lamphun and Chiang Mai derailed, injuring three men in the last car. After going downhill in tambon Thap Kwang and swerving past Wat Pa Sadet / Pa Sadet Temple– see black flag icon in the map notes – the16 cement cars derailed before reaching Pha Sadet station. As a result of the incident, all north-eastern trains had to be diverted while the cars were removed.

COMMENT. This is the first incident of its kind since closer monitoring of Thailand began in May 2017. COMMENT ENDS.

While this incident has appeared to have caused a great deal of delay to rail operations in this area, it does not appear to be a frequent occurrence and ongoing threat at this time.

5. 10 SEP 2017: UXO Blast Kills 1, Injures 2 in Lom Kai District, PhetchabunA minibus driver was killed and two female tourists wounded by what has appeared to be an unexploded ordnance (UXO) detonation in Tambon Wang Ban. The driver was killed instantly by shrapnel when the UXO detonated, and two female tourists were wounded. Initial reports indicate the driver stepped on a landmine left over from the time of Communist insurgency. At times during the 1970s and 1980s, the mountainous areas of Phetchabun – including Phu Thap Boek – were a battlefield between the government forces and Communist insurgents. Despite the government’s de-mining operations, some UXO may be still in these areas.

COMMENT. This explosion occurred near Phu Thap Boek, a popular tourist attraction which has featured a number of illegal resorts and restaurants being opened up. Local authorities have been responding to this issue by cracking down on these operations. The location of this blast has been a frequently used area by authorities to rally before conducting operations against illegal resorts.

Imagery from reports used for logging this incident show officials examining remnants of the blast which include wires as pictured above. These circumstances have also raised the possibility of this incident being an improvised explosive device (IED) intended as a threat against the ongoing campaign to demolish illegally built resorts and restaurants in the area COMMENT ENDS.

BANGKOK

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6. 11 SEP 2017: Constitution Drafting Committee and the Next Election

According to the Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC), the general election will likely take place in mid-October next year at the earliest or December next year. The assessment is based on the process for drafting the required organic laws can take up to 240 days to complete. The 2017 constitution gives charter writers up to 240 days from April 6 this year, the date the charter was promulgated – 06 April 2017 – to write 10 Organic Acts, four of which are required to be enacted before the general election can be held. The four bills required for the election are Organic Laws for the Election Commission, Political Parties, MP Elections and Acquisition of Senators. The first two have already been approved by the National Legislative Assembly (NLA) and are in the process of seeking royal endorsement. The latter two have yet to reach the NLA.

COMMENT. Section 268 of the 2017 Constitution provides after the four election-related organic bills take effect, a general election will be held within 150 days. After receiving the bill, the charter gives the NLA 60 days to consider it. Once it passes the vote, related parties, such as the Election Commission, can oppose it within 10 days in which case a panel of three sides – the NLA, the constitution writers and the opposing party – will be set up to reconcile the differences within 15 days. After that, the NLA will vote on the revised version and if two-thirds vote it down, a new process begins on rewriting the bill (Office of the United Nations Resident Coordinator in Thailand, 2016).

While only four of the Organic Laws are necessary to conduct the next election, not having all of the other six Organic Laws passed as well would put other mechanisms for governing Thailand – such the Ombudsman, Anti-Corruption principles and State Audit procedures – at risk of being undermined and provide an opportunity for the recurring transitions between democracy and military dictatorship to continue.

In order to make sure all of the ten Organic Acts become law, the remaining two Organic Acts for the conduct of the next general election would be among the final Organic Acts to be debated and voted on by the NLA. COMMENT ENDS.

7. 11 SEP 2017: Preparations for Royal Cremation

According to Thai PBS reporting, all preparations for the royal cremation of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej, including the construction of the crematorium and the decoration of the cremation ground – see above imagery – will be completed by the end of September 2017. The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration is due to install large television monitors around Sanam Luang – the cremation ground – for the people to watch all ceremonies to be held between 25-30 October 2017. The cremation day is 26 October 2017.

COMMENT. King Bhumibol Adulyadej was the world’s longest reigning monarch and was held in high regard by the Thai people. His death last year saw a 12-month official mourning period being established (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, 2017). With the Royal Cremation will come the end of this mourning period. COMMENT ENDS.

8. 11 SEP 2017: Suspected Drug Trafficking Mastermind Arrested

The suspected leader of a major drug trading network was arrested by the Narcotics Suppression Bureau (NSB), seizing 2 million baht (US$60441.24) in cash and a bank book indicating a further 60 million baht (US$1813237.20) in circulation. Jirat Pensophonwitch, also known as Ek Ouan, was arrested at his house in Pak Kret district. His arrest followed an extended probe following the arrest of members of a drug gang in possession of 1 million methamphetamine pills and 400kg of crystal methamphetamine last year.

The NSB had learned Jirat was the alleged leader of a drug trading network that used mobile phones registered by users from neighbouring countries. It was believed Jirat ordered the drugs from the North for delivery to provinces in the South, as well as distributing the drugs in greater Bangkok. Police also searched 43 other locations, 14 in Bangkok and the rest in various provinces.

COMMENT. Large drug seizures in the North, North-East, Bangkok, East, Central and South reporting regions have been a common occurrence across Thailand. The arrest of Jirat as well as some previous arrests of leading figures would be able provide the NSB and Thai authorities with a large amount of valuable information to disrupt well-established drug trafficking networks. COMMENT ENDS.

EAST & WEST

9. Nothing Significant to Report.

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10. 15 SEP 2017: Floods and Landslides Across Phuket

Heavy rain has continued in Phuket with numerous areas of the island being flooded on Friday after an overnight downpour, with heavy rain expected in most parts of the country to continue. As shown in the imagery above, several roads in Muang district have been submerged.

A direct consequence of the heavy rain and floods has been the occurrence of landslides across Phuket. The areas affected by the landslides – shown in the above map notes – are Kathu district, Kalama beach, Patong-Kalim beach area and the Ratsada area in Muang district.

SOUTH EAST

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11. 14 SEP 2017: Complex Attack Kills 2, Wounds Over 20 in Yala.

Two have been killed and up to 26 rangers, bomb squad members and civilians injured in what appears to have been a well-planned complex attack in Yala province. Based on available reporting, the sequence of events is as follows:

01:30 hours, 14/09/2017 – a 15kg IED was detonated on a power pole in Ban Lalae, Tambon Kabang of Kabang district. It was reported around 07:00 hours to Kabang police station. Investigators have said villagers heard an explosion around 1.30am but waited until sunrise to examine what had happened; discovering the IED had damaged a power pole, but caused no injuries.

09:00 hours, 14/09/2017 – an Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team was sent to examine the first IED site. They were travelling on the road linking Yala and Kabang district – Highway 4070 – when a second IED detonated as the team passed through Tambon Katong, Yaha district. The IED damaged a vehicle driven by a Ranger volunteer and the van carrying the EOD unit. Police accompanying the unit exchanged fire with a group of nearby insurgents.

09:05hours, 14/09/2017 – soldiers from the 47th Ranger Task Force arrived, and the insurgents quickly withdrew. EOD members jammed mobile phone and radio signals in the area before inspecting the scene. The IED had been placed at a roadside pole and detonated by radio signal.

10:00, 14/09/2017 – while the EOD personnel were examining the IED site, another IED exploded, wounding numerous personnel. Reports indicate up to 28 had been sent to hospitals in the area with two later dying from wounds.

Prior to the above, authorities were also informed of a suspicious object left at a bridge on Highway 4070 in Yaha district. The area was temporarily declared off-limits so the object could be examined, forcing motorists to take other routes. Security was also stepped up in Yala municipality after authorities received a tip-off about a possible car bomb around 10.15 hours. According to officers, around four pickup trucks without licence plates were spotted in the municipality. One of the vehicles was an Isuzu D-Max suspected of carrying two bombs in a gas cylinder weighing 50kg and 7-8 gallon cans containing fuel. The vehicle was believed to belong to an insurgent network, led by Useng Thammawitthaya.

COMMENT. This complex attack appears to have been well-planned. Attacks like the one on Highway 4070 in Yala province and nearby districts of Narathiwat have occurred before where a group of insurgents carried out an infantry style ambush using an IED to initiate the ambush, a second to bring down a power pole to cut-off the target’s escape and fix them in place, followed up by small-arms fire. The last attack of this kind was on 11 August 2017 in Chanae district, Narathiwat (Pratten, 2017b). The time between this attack and previous attacks indicates the insurgents carrying out these attacks take their time, conducting detailed reconnaissance to select a location that will increase their chances of success.

In addition, the first IED in Ban Lalae would appear to be a ‘come-on;’ an action which is solely intended to force authorities to react and draw them into a location of an insurgent groups’ choosing to carry out an ambush or bombing. This kind of tactic was last seen in Sungai Kolok near the Thai/Malaysia border where insurgents detonated one small IED on a motorcycle to EOD towards a larger IED designed to kill them (Pratten, 2017c).

The IED that detonated while EOD were investigating the previous one on Highway 4070 was detonated while – according to reports – the EOD team had jammed mobile phone and radio signals. This would mean the IED that hit the EOD team was detonated without the use of radio transmitters. An IED that can detonate despite radio and mobile phone jamming would need to be carried out by a detonator physically connected to the IED by wire –Command Wire IED or CWIED – an electric timer, or a pressure plate buried underground which detonates the IED when it is stepped on – Pressure Plate IED or PPIED. COMMENT ENDS.

12. 15 SEP 2017: BRN Leader Claims Peace Talks ‘Doomed.’

In a rare interview, an individual named Pak Fakih from the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) said the current peace talks with other factions were doomed and the government must drop pre-conditions, show greater respect to the separatists and adopt a more open-minded approach. Pak Fakih told media that “our attacks are confined to the Deep South and are about sending a signal to the Thai government. We never want to cause widespread harm.” He added, “it is a mistake to think that we do not want to negotiate. We do, but not under the current circumstances.” Media reports about this statement have said that Fakih is 67 years old and has been fighting since he was 15, even losing a son in the ongoing conflict seven years ago.

The BRN is widely seen as the group with the greatest control over combatants in the three southern provinces. However, it is difficult to ascertain which specific group is responsible for attacks as there are never any claims or rejections of being responsible for any specific attack. Fakih said that policy would continue.

COMMENT. Fakih’s statements came in the wake of a series of attacks that have killed two in Yala province. During those attacks, a number of reports emerged which created the scenario of civilians avoiding the areas of the attacks. Fakih’s comments of, “our attacks are confined to the Deep South and are about sending a signal to the Thai government. We never want to cause widespread harm,” would indicate he had some kind of knowledge or involvement in these attacks.

Fakih’s statements along with reporting surrounding a – predominantly – failed number of recent attempted of Vehicle Borne IED or VBIED attacks in Pattani has begun to provide details on leadership figures in the ongoing insurgency. COMMENT ENDS.

ASSESSMENT

Overall, Thailand appears to be continuing with a ‘business as usual’ scenario despite the nature of a number of incidents. Across the country, the incidents that have been occurring are the norm for their respective reporting regions. This even applies to the occurrence of TC DOKSURI coming towards Thailand and the complex attack which occurred in the South-East. While the attack is severe, this kind of attack in the location it occurred in is a common occurrence.

The occurrence of TC DOKSURI is a feature of weather conditions for Thailand at this time of year. However, given that it is expected to weaken after it has reached Thailand rather than before – like what was seen with TC SONCA – there is POTENTIAL that the weather conditions brought about by TC DOKSURI will have a greater impact on Thailand than what has been seen in previous weeks. If TC DOKSURI maintains its assessed course and strength, it is POTENTIALLY going to cause more severe flooding than previous storms and heavy rain across Thailand. The most affected areas by TC DOKSURI will be all the provinces in the North, North-East and – as a direct consequence of conditions from these regions – the Central reporting regions. Given what has been occurring in Phuket, TC DOKSURI will POSSIBLY exacerbate the floods which have been occurring on the island, POSSIBLY leading to more landslides occurring across the island and POSSIBLY surrounding provinces in the South. Until the monsoon season ends, Phuket will PROBABLY be an area that is hard to access and will be an area to avoid.

The UXO blast that occurred in Lom Kai District, Phetchabun was POTENTIALLY an IED attack instead, intended to target authorities clamping down on illegal resorts and restaurants in the area. Depending on the effectiveness of law enforcement to find those responsible for this incident, such activities will POTENTIALLY continue in this part of the country.

The comments on the election made by the CDC are an indication of how the progress towards passing all ten Organic Laws will progress. It is PROBABLE the two remaining laws required for the election to be conducted – MP Elections and Acquisition of Senators – will be the last of the Organic Laws to be passed by the NLA to ensure that none of the Organic Laws required to be passed into law are left as unfinished business after the next general election. This will PROBABLY mean that the election, as stated by the CDC, will occur in the later half of next year. However, after the cremation of King Bhumibol Adulyadej in October, there will POSSIBLY be greater attention given to the progress of conducting elections and returning Thailand to democratic rule.

The upcoming cremation of the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej will PROBABLY be a major focus of media organisations focusing on Thailand from now until the cremation is complete. Such focus will PROBABLY divert attention away from other developments across Thailand such as the OMCG activities in Surin and spill-over effects from the arrest of Jirat by the NSB. Such attention will POTENTIALLY lead to incident trends remaining low for the remainder of September and POTENTIALLY October as well.

The attacks in Yala represent an increase in capability by insurgent groups. The sequence of events surrounding the complex attack in Yala province indicates insurgents in this area have been learning from past incidents across the South-East and have identified how to successfully counter the tactics of security forces. Insurgents in Yala province will PROBABLY continue more of these attacks; these tactics of using ‘come-ons’ to draw security forces into an area followed by a complex attack consisting of an IED to initiate the attack, followed by small arms fire and a CWIED or PPIED being detonated against security forces to casue further casualties could POSSIBLY spread elsewhere to insurgents in Pattani and Narathiwat. In addition, the third IED that detonated appears to have successfully wounded a number of EOD personnel. With them out of action in order to recover from wounds, insurgents will POSSIBLY have greater success in carrying out IED attacks over the next few weeks.

With the addition of Pak Fakih’s statements to the media, these attacks will POSSIBLY have an increased focus on Thai security personnel and aiming to keep civilians out of the way of their attacks. An updated snapshot of insurgent groups in the South-East will be able to be completed in the coming weeks.

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