Marta Gª Outón

Marta Gª Outón

Associate Analyst

05/10/2017

05/10/2017

Intelligence Analysis - Tunisia and Algeria

TUNISIA (July, 2017) – Main incidents
TUNISIA (July, 2017) – Geopolitical developments
SOCIAL UNREST:
Increasing social unrest perceived over economic injustice and corruption (bill of reconciliation promoted by the government).Social unrest over unemployment and over a lack of payment of the pensions –the problem is affecting mostly these areas: the capital, Sidi Bouzid, Bouziane and El Faouar.
ECONOMIC RELATIONS:
Bilateral relations with Turkey –energy, industry and trade-: Agreement on Reciprocal Promotion and Protection of Investments introducing export products of both countries to markets of both countries and third markets by means of collaborative endeavors.
TERRORIST THREAT
Terrorist incidents have decreased but organized crime has increased.
ANALYSIS
The foreign trade deficit is a situation of worry for those countries depending on energy, industry and trade. The changing of economic relations with Turkey (which is breaking with Europe) has moved this country to search for a strengthening of other bilateral relations.Turkey will import olive oil and phosphate, which is generally used for fertilizer, from Tunisia.Social protests will continue, mostly in the urban areas –Tunis, Sidi Bouzid) related to the economic injustice and corruption.Anti-terror operations continue close to the border with Algeria, in the area of Kasserine, Sidi Bouzid and Tizi Ouzou mostly.
ALGERIA (July, 2017) – Main incidents
ALGERIA (July, 2017) – Geopolitical developments
SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT:
Increased sectarianism: Presidential campaign to guarantee residence and work rights for immigrants and to fight against sectarianism.Social unrest over lack of medical and economic aid to military veterans and security forces after their service in the war. The protests over this concern were registered in Blida.Protests over the bill against imports in Sidi Yahia, more dependent in foreign trade.Areas mostly affected by irregular immigration: Tiaret, Annaba, Medea… those areas also account the increased criminal activity, mostly human trafficking.
ECONOMIC RELATIONS:
Smuggling is mostly affecting the Northwest area of the country, close to the Algerian border.Bilateral cooperation with Europe, Egypt and China: with Europe, it will be an increase of TIC investment, which will improve the communication and technology infrastructures. With Egypt, it has signed a trade agreement in economic exchange and better investment.More than 1.000 hectares affected by hazards (mostly in the North of the country).
TERRORIST THREAT - Terrorist incidents have increased.
ANALYSIS
The bill against imports has been taken in order to increase and resurrect Algerian economy, affected by the decrease of the oil prices. The decision will mostly affect those areas more dependent in foreign trade, which will need an economic change and an improvement of the infrastructures.Egypt will continue its economic relations with Algeria: Egypt ranks first among foreign countries investing in Algeria outside the fuel sector, especially in the telecommunications market.China has increased its involvement in the government evolution of Algeria, interested in Algeria’s good governance.
TUNISIA (September, 2017) – Main incidents
TUNISIA (September, 2017) – Geopolitical developments
SOCIAL UNREST:
Increasing social unrest perceived over the new Amnesty Law, the lack of employment and the poor infrastructure for workers.Social protests continue, mostly in the urban areas, but is affecting also the poorest areas of the country (Sousse, Jendouba…) related to the economic injustice and corruption.
ECONOMIC RELATIONS:
The absence of young people in the tourism industry (main driver of the Tunisian economy) is evident in specialties such as cooking and tourist services, despite the high level of professionalism of the specialists, where the school administration provides job opportunities for the graduates abroad.
TERRORIST THREAT
Terrorist incidents have decreased but organized crime has increased.
ANALYSIS
Criminality and smuggling is affecting more the poorest areas of the country (Gabes, Sfax) as the terrorism threat is located close to the Algerian and Libyan border.Social protests continue, mostly in the urban areas –Tunis, Sidi Bouzid-, but is affecting also the poorest areas of the country (Sousse, Jendouba…) related to the lack of employment, infrastructure and water supply.
ALGERIA (September, 2017) – Geopolitical developments
SOCIAL UNREST:
Increasing social unrest perceived over economic injustice and corruption. There is an increased concern over the bad conditions of the education, health, transport and water supply facilities.The protests are starting to ask for Bouteflika’s dismissal.The violence committed by security forces against protesters has increased movement of protests (clashes mainly in Barais and Alger), seeing this situation as a lack of free expression.
ECONOMIC RELATIONS:
Venezuela has made a visit to Algeria in order to improve the bilateral relations, related to the economic situation of both countries (dependent on energy trade).Smuggling is affecting mostly in the Libyan border and in the Moroccan border. The perceived increase of the insecurity (due to terrorism, smuggling, human trafficking…) in those borders has seen a requirement to increase the presence of security forces there.
TERRORIST THREAT - More terrorist threat (Libyan and Tunisian borders)
ANALYSIS
Venezuela has made a visit to Algeria in order to improve bilateral relations, related to the economic situation of both countries (dependent on energy trade).The economy of Algeria is recovering, mainly thanks to the potential of national production, bilateral relations and even the unstable situation with the Kurdistan, which is forcing many countries to look for new insurers of their business.The education, transport infrastructure and health facilities are a concern. Also, as in Tunisia, Algeria has seen protests due to the lack of water supply and industry infrastructure.The insecurity (terrorist movements and smuggling) on the Libyan and Moroccan borders has required an increased security presence on the Eastern part of the country.
CONCLUSIONS:
MAIN INCIDENTS IN TUNISIA (July-September 2017)
*Worrying situation: increase of violent incidents and protests related to the new Amnesty Law, the lack of employment and the poor infrastructures for the workers.
*Better conditions of security: Smuggling, robbery and terrorist threat security operations.
*Areas of destabilization: Kef, Tunis, Sousse, Sfax, Kasserine, border with Libya.
MAIN INCIDENTS IN ALGERIA (July-September 2017)
*Worrying situation: increase of protests and violent incidents over economic injustice and corruption and repression committed by security forces. There is an increased concern over the bad conditions of education, health, transport and water supply facilities.
*Better conditions of security: Smuggling, robbery and terrorist threat security operations.
*Areas of destabilization: Medea, Tizi Ouzou, Alger, Tipasa, Tindouf, Tiemcen, Sidi Bell Abess, Tiaret, Tebessa, Jijel, Bechar, border with Libya, Morocco and Tunisia.
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